Sunday, March 11, 2012

Oracle Earnings Preview: Slightly Better Quarter Expected, Reports March 20


Update 1 on 3-10-12


Oracle (ORCL) Quarterly Earnings Announcement

Oracle will report QE January 2012 financial results on Tuesday, March 20, after market close. The conference call will be at 2:00 p.m. PT.

Oracle Future and Past Financial Performance

Estimated QE February 2012 Earnings per Share (Non-GAAP)
Yahoo Finance Analysts Estimates: $0.56 avg, $0.53 low, $0.58 high, 36 analysts
Prior Quarter: $0.54
Prior Year: $0.54
Oracle Outlook: $0.55 to $0.58

Prior QE November 2011 Financial Results (GAAP) When Oracle reports financial results, the company is expected to meet, beat, or miss various prior quarterly results. These prior quarterly financial results were:
Total Revenues $8.79B
Operating Income $3.11B
Net Income $2.19B
Earnings per Share $0.43
Oracle EPS Outlook: $0.43 to $0.46
Cash Flow per Share $2.56
Gross Profit Margin 77.75%
Operating Income Margin 35.38%
Net Income Margin 24.93%
Summary (GAAP) Overall, the QE February 2012 is expected to be a slightly better quarter with a small increase in Earnings per Share QoQ and YoY. Oracle should beat QoQ and YoY on Total Revenues, Operating Income, Net Income, Earnings per Share and probably Cash Flow per Share. Oracle should meet QoQ and YoY for Gross Margin, Operating Margin, and Net Margin. A miss on any margins would be a concern. The prior quarterly review is below.

Oracle Reports QoQ and YoY Earnings Increase: Revenues, Net Income, EPS Up

Oracle Summary QE November 2011 Oracle may have disappointed investors, but it was still a decent quarter and just below guidance. The QE November can be an intermediate peak for Oracle on the annual cycle. This current QE November was a strong peak, but not a breakout quarter. Financial performance improved QoQ and YoY: total revenues, operating income, net income, earnings per share, cash flow per share, gross margin, operating margin, and net margin all increased QoQ and YoY. The biggest performance concern is the decreasing annual YoY growth rates in total revenues and earnings per share. These are now down to +2.45% and +16.22%, respectively. The biggest position negative has been the debt. This continues at 20% of total assets, down from a peak of 26% for the QE August 2010. Financial position continues as adequate capital with moderate debt and reasonable liquidity.

Oracle Income Statement QE November 2011 Oracle reported total revenues of $8.79 billion, net income of $2.19 billion, and earnings per share of $0.43. From the prior quarter QE August 2011, total revenues were up +4.99%, net income up +19.13%, and earnings per share up +19.44%. From the prior year QE November 2010, these were up +2.45%, up +17.22%, and up +16.22%, respectively. Gross margin (see note below), operating margin, and net margin were up QoQ and YoY at 77.75%, 35.38%, and 24.93%, respectively. Cash flow from operations of $2.56 was up QoQ and YoY. The operating expense ratio (operating expenses divided by total revenues) of 42.37% was down QoQ and YoY. [Note: Oracle does not report a gross profit, but includes some allocated cost of revenues in operating expenses as line items. For this analysis, these allocated cost of revenues have been reclassified as cost of revenues and operating expenses are therefore the commonly reported line items of most companies. The gross profit reviewed is not a true gross profit. Operating margin and net margin are not affected by this reclassification.]

Oracle Balance Sheet QE November 2011 Oracle's total assets decreased -1.28% QoQ to $72.91 billion from the prior quarter of $73.86 billion. The capital to assets ratio of 57.97% is a multi-year high. The current ratio of 52.78% is about at the historical average. The return on assets of +13.17% is historically very strong and has increased for 5 consecutive quarters. Total debt is flat at 20% of total assets. Oracle Outlook Oracle estimates QE February 2012 GAAP earnings per share of $0.43 to $0.46 and Non-GAAP EPS of $0.55 to $0.58. This would be flat to a small increase QoQ and YoY for both GAAP and non-GAAP.

Oracle Financial Performance by the Quarters Oracle Earnings Per Share Current Earnings per Share of $0.43 are up +19% QoQ and up +16% YoY. The prior peaks have been the QE May 2011, 2010, and 2009 of $0.62, $0.46, and $0.38, respectively. The lows have been the QE August 2011, 2010, and 2009 of $0.36, $0.27, and $0.22, respectively. The QE May is the strongest quarter and the QE August is the weakest quarter for Oracle. These peaks and lows indicate an annual cyclical nature to Oracle's business. The chart high has been $0.62 for the QE May 2011 and the chart low has been $0.22 for QE August 2009. The EPS chart average is $0.35.




Oracle Cash Flow per Share Current Cash Flow per Share of $2.56 is a multi-year, if not all-time, high, and has increased 7 consecutive quarters. The CFS chart average is $1.88.




Oracle Total Revenues and Net Income Current Total Revenues of $8.79B are up +5% QoQ and up +2% YoY. Total Revenues have increased 7 of the past 9 quarters. Current Net Income of $2.19B is up +19% QoQ and up +17% YoY. Net Income has increased 4 of the past 5 quarters. The chart averages for TR, OI, and NI are $$8.28B, $2.79B, and $1.95B, respectively.




Oracle Gross Margin, Operating Margin, and Net Margin Current Gross Margin (see note below) of 77.75% is up QoQ, up YoY, and above the chart average of 77.09%. Current Operating Margin of 35.38% is up QoQ, up YoY, and above the chart average of 33.39%. Current Net Margin of 24.93% is also up QoQ, up YoY, and above the chart average of 23.22%. The current average income tax rate of 25.95% is a 4-quarter high and above average, decreasing the net margin. [Note: Oracle does not report a gross profit, but includes some allocated cost of revenues in operating expenses as line items. For this analysis, these allocated cost of revenues have been reclassified as cost of revenues and operating expenses are therefore the commonly reported line items of most companies. The gross profit reviewed is not a true gross profit. Operating margin and net margin are not affected by this reclassification.]




Oracle Return on Assets Current Return on Assets of +13.17% is a multi-quarter high, relatively very strong, and has increased 5 consecutive quarters. This indicates an increasing effectiveness in the deployment of assets. The ROA chart average is 11.99%.




Oracle Growth Rates YoY This is the concern about Oracle: declining YoY revenues and YoY earnings per share growth. Current Total Revenues Growth YoY of +2.45% is a multi-year low and well below the TR chart average of +24.41%. Current Earnings per Share Growth YoY of +16.22% is also a multi-year low and well below the EPS chart average of +26.49%. The current drop in QE November 2011 was not expected, compared to the annual cycle.




Oracle Segment Revenues Current Software of $6.03B is the primary driver of revenues and rebounded in the current QE November 2011. Current Hardware of $1.58B dipped QoQ and current Service of $1.18B was flat QoQ.




Oracle Regional Revenues Current Americas of $4.53B is up QoQ and YoY. Current Europe, Middle East, Africa of $2.76B is up slightly QoQ and YoY. Current Asia Pacific of $1.50B is also up QoQ and YoY.

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